The Reserve Bank may go for a final 25 basis points increase in the current rate hike cycle next week and a reduction would come in only by the end of third quarter of FY24, economists at Axis Bank said on Wednesday. As per media reports, RBI officials met economists on Tuesday, and the latter have suggested the central bank to go for a 25 basis points hike in key rates. Since May 2022, the RBI has hiked rates by 250 basis points, hurting borrowers and some are already concerned about loan tenors extending beyond their working lives as a result of the hikes.
The main reason was that CPI inflation would likely remain below 4 per cent till July.
Reversal in the declining economic growth trajectory is clearly the need of the hour and all steps should be taken to bring about this change.
RBI governor Das flags growth slowdown, deputy raises alarm on inflation
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will maintain the policy repo rate at 6.5 per cent during its upcoming June 8 announcement, considering the easing of retail inflation in April and the potential for further decline, indicating the effectiveness of previous policy rate actions, anticipate experts. Headed by Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das, a meeting of the six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is scheduled for June 6-8. The decision of the 43rd meeting of the MPC would be announced on Thursday, June 8.
DBS called Rajan's decision not to seek an extension as a 'negative surprise'.
Ahead of the 2023-24 Union Budget, the thinking at the top level of the central government is clear: Gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 6-6.5 per cent is a comfortable enough target for FY24 and the focus should be on fiscal consolidation to ensure that the sovereign cost of borrowing does not become prohibitively expensive in a high-interest rate environment, according to people in the know. Those aware of deliberations between the Prime Minister's Office (PMO) and the Ministry of Finance said while the Budget would look to strike a balance between infrastructure investment and welfare schemes, it is unlikely to be populist, though it will be the last full-year Budget before the 2024 Lok Sabha election. Incidentally, 6-6.5 per cent GDP growth is what the upcoming 2022-23 Economic Survey is expected to project for FY24.
The government's total liabilities rose to Rs 128.41 lakh crore in December quarter from Rs 125.71 lakh crore in the three months ended September 2021, according to the latest public debt management report. The increase reflects a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.15 per cent in October-December 2021-22. In absolute terms, the total liabilities, including liabilities under the 'Public Account' of the government, jumped to Rs 1,28,41,996 crore at the end of December 2021.
The banking sector in India is reeling under Rs 8 lakh crore of non performing assets (NPAs) or bad loans, of which PSU banks alone account for over Rs 6 lakh crore.
Announcement of macroeconmic data such as industrial production and inflation, the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision along with trends in global equities would dictate movement in the stock market this week, analysts said. Besides, foreign fund trading activity would also guide the trends in equities. "All eyes are now on the US Fed policy outcome for cues, which is scheduled on June 14. In the following sessions, the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) will also announce their policy decisions.
Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das has pitched for policy support from all sides -- fiscal, monetary and sectoral -- to nurture recovery of the economy hit by the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic. The dent on economic activity due to the second wave of the pandemic during April-May necessitated continuation of monetary measures to support the process of economic recovery to make it durable, Das had said while participating in the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) earlier in the month. "Overall, the second wave of COVID-19 has altered the near-term outlook, and policy support from all sides - fiscal, monetary and sectoral - is required to nurture recovery and expedite return to normalcy," Das said, as per the minutes of the meeting released on Friday.
Here is some background on the candidates seen as potential successors to Rajan at the RBI
They have also called for giving cash to the poor, so that demand is generated in the economy.
The central bank had revised its inflation forecast significantly downward in the last policy
Slowdown in industrial production notwithstanding, a marginal increase in inflation raised the clamour for another round of rate cut by the Reserve Bank on April 4 to boost economic activity.
Three years after India declared its goal to become a net-zero economy by 2070, the policy design for achieving the target has begun, with the NITI Aayog forming dedicated multi-sectoral committees to prepare a transition plan. In 2021, India joined a select group of nations that set a target year for becoming net-zero carbon economy. At COP26 in Glasgow, Prime Minister Narendra Modi outlined a five-pronged 'Panchamitra' climate action target for India and committed to a net-zero target by 2070, joining nations like the US, the UK, and China.
India's services sector activity witnessed a sharp upturn in August on the back of stronger gains in new business, ongoing improvements in demand conditions and job creation, a monthly survey said on Monday. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index rose from July's four-month low of 55.5 to 57.2 in August, amid a quicker upturn in business activity and the sharpest rise in employment for over 14 years. For the thirteenth straight month, the services sector witnessed an expansion in output.
Concerned over elevated inflation, Reserve Bank of India on Friday decided to leave the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4 per cent but maintained an accommodative stance, implying more rate cuts in the future if need arises to support the economy hit by the Covid-19 pandemic.
RBI said at the current juncture, the all-out effort is to maintain and sustain, with the hope that when life is secure, resources, energy and time can be marshalled to rebuild and revive.
The banking sector is set to move at a fast pace from hereon.
Retail inflation softened to 6.71 per cent in July due to moderation in food prices but remained above the Reserve Bank's comfort level of 6 per cent for the seventh consecutive month. With retail inflation continuing to remain high despite a fall in prices of vegetables and edible oils, among other commodities in July, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) might go for another rate hike in September. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation was at 7.01 per cent in June and 5.59 per cent in July 2021. It was above 7 per cent from April to June this fiscal.
There is a near consensus that at least a 25 basis points cut, if not 50, can be expected in the June policy.
Are we adopting an idea whose time has come and gone? My feeling is, yes, says ex-banker C Joseph Chacko in the fourth article of the series on inflation targeting.
'Some of the astounding proposals, if translated into statutory provisions, would be suicidal.' 'This would not be a wonder cure for increasing insurance penetration and only result in mushrooming growth of players like paan kiosks with deleterious consequences.'
The Reserve Bank of India is likely to cut policy rates by 0.25 per cent and keep the cash reserve ratio unchanged at its policy review next week, on the back of slower-than-expected growth and more encouraging inflation readings, says a report by HSBC.
Headed by Urjit Patel, MPC for the fourth straight time kept the repo rate unchanged, at which it lends to the banks, at 6.25 per cent. The reverse repo, at which RBI borrows, will be 6 per cent.
Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Wednesday said the country is at the doorstep of economic revival on the back of accommodative monetary and fiscal policies being pursued by the central bank and the government.
Given the pressure from India Inc and the banking fraternity, it is surmised that the portfolio rejig will take place before April.
Analysts are divided on their retail price inflation forecast, with some saying the first quarter numbers will overshoot the RBI target by as much as 60 bps while others are softer in their estimate. Consumer price inflation retreated from its 15-month peak of 7.4 per cent in July to 6.8 per cent in August, much lower than the market expectations, despite vegetable prices remaining elevated at 26.1 per cent. Food inflation eased to 9.9 per cent from 11.5 per cent, led by some cooling of inflation in vegetables, cereals, pulses and milk.
The S&P BSE Midcap and the S&P BSE Smallcap indices added 0.5% and 0.7%, respectively
Consumer goods firms and auto companies are witnessing an upturn in rural demand, which had been lagging for most of FY24. Expectations of a bumper rabi crop harvest have helped turn the tide. The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) Monetary Policy Committee kept the repo rate unchanged last week, noting that as rural demand catches up, consumption is expected to support economic growth in 2024-25.
Firms seem to have adopted a wait-and-see approach on their plans until public policies become clearer upon the formation of a government.
'Government of India has the right to give directions to RBI'.
The RBI's surprise rate hike may have been prompted by its inability to convince the government to cut excise duty on petrol and diesel and take other supply-side measures to tame runaway inflation, sources aware of the central bank's thinking said on Thursday. There has been a record Rs 10 a litre increase in petrol and diesel prices in a matter of 16 days beginning March 22, which has further fuelled the already high commodity prices. The RBI, which is mandated to ensure inflation is under 6 per cent, acted with a 0.40 per cent increase in repo rate to check prices before they went completely out of hand.
investors will look to the new governor to continue the banking sector clean-up with the same urgency as Mr Rajan, who was targeting fully cleaned-up and provisioned balance sheets by March 2017
Wednesday's was the first MPC meeting that had a dissent note.
What stood out in his 15-year journey as a member of the political executive at the Centre was his glowing record as India's most successful and effective finance minister. Both as prime minister and finance minister, he understood the importance of gradualism, except when the economy or the polity was in a crisis.
For all its claims to economic glory, the majority of India's population lives vulnerable lives, a situation that has only worsened over the past 15 years, to the extent that the government now fears to release economic data or even conduct a proper Census, notes Rathin Roy.
Equity indices made an emphatic comeback on Friday after falling for seven straight sessions after the RBI hiked interest rates by 50 basis points on expected lines and projected inflation coming under control from January next year. A strong recovery in the rupee added to the momentum, traders said. Overcoming a wobbly start, the 30-share BSE Sensex soared 1,016.96 points or 1.80 per cent to settle at 57,426.92. During the day, it rallied 1,312.67 points or 2.32 per cent to 57,722.63.
